Angola's 2027 budget: growth, debt and the election-year test

How credible are Angola's 2027 budget forecasts, and how much room for manoeuvre does the government have with debt repayments consuming such a large share of expenditure?

Fernando Lima is joined by economist **Francisco Paulo** and political risk analyst **Marisa Lourenço** to examine the outlook for non-oil revenue, the country's dependence on oil, public borrowing and spending pressures ahead of the 2027 elections.

They also discuss the proposed sale of BPI's stake in BFA to Grupo Carrinho and Unitel's options, plans to link the Lobito Corridor and TAZARA railway, and Angola's continued presence on the FATF grey list.

## Timestamps

**00:00 — Introduction.** Fernando Lima introduces the panel and the week's agenda.

**03:06 — BFA: Unitel or Grupo Carrinho?** BPI's proposed share sale, Unitel's right of first refusal and the political and commercial interests around one of Angola's largest banks.

**08:47 — Will Unitel step in?** Francisco and Marisa weigh the likelihood of Unitel exercising its rights and what the ownership outcome could mean for control of bank credit.

**12:59 — Linking the Lobito Corridor to TAZARA.** Could a rail connection between the Atlantic and Indian Oceans give regional exporters a valuable alternative route?

**17:14 — A vision without a financing plan?** Marisa examines the condition of the existing network, the missing Zambian connections and the obstacles to delivery.

**21:11 — The competition for regional freight.** Routes through South Africa and Mozambique, including Nacala, and the practical choices facing mineral exporters.

**24:23 — Why regional cooperation matters.** Francisco argues for a stronger SADC role in coordinating transport investment; the panel discusses the politics and financing of cross-border corridors.

**32:44 — Why Angola remains on the FATF grey list.** What the continued monitoring says about the country's anti-money-laundering regime.

**35:03 — The cost of grey-listing.** Correspondent banking, international transfers and the difficulties facing an import-dependent economy.

**37:01 — Beneficial ownership and enforcement.** Marisa and Francisco discuss business transparency, implementation of the law and the challenge of prosecuting financial crime.

**46:16 — What stricter banking checks mean for customers.** Fernando draws on Mozambique's experience of grey-listing and its everyday consequences.

**47:07 — The proposed 2027 budget.** Can Angola deliver the government's growth and revenue forecasts in an election year?

**48:05 — Non-oil revenue and the debt burden.** Francisco questions the revenue assumptions and warns about borrowing to service existing debt.

**50:11 — How far has Angola really diversified?** Marisa examines the oil-price assumptions, the non-oil growth narrative and the narrow tax base.

**55:03 — Where did the borrowed money go?** Francisco calls for an audit connecting public liabilities to the projects and assets they financed.

**57:14 — Fuel subsidies and public companies.** Should state-owned enterprises pay more of their own fuel costs?

**58:36 — The election-year test.** Will the government stick to its budget, or will political demands put spending plans under pressure?

**1:00:27 — Closing remarks.**

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