News:News Commentary

Angola Briefing

TB Hosted by Tom Bowker

Updates and analysis of the latest political, economic and energy sector developments in Angola, from Zitamar News www.angolabriefing.com

8 episodesMonthly

Episodes

Angola's 2027 budget: growth, debt and the election-year test

How credible are Angola's 2027 budget forecasts, and how much room for manoeuvre does the government have with debt repayments consuming such a large share of expenditure? Fernando Lima is joined by economist **Francisco Paulo** and political risk analyst **Marisa Lourenço** to examine the outlook for non-oil revenue, the country's dependence on oil, public borrowing and spending pressures ahead of the 2027 elections. They also discuss the proposed sale of BPI's stake in BFA to Grupo Carrinho and Unitel's options, plans to link the Lobito Corridor and TAZARA railway, and Angola's continued presence on the FATF grey list. ## Timestamps **00:00 — Introduction.** Fernando Lima introduces the panel and the week's agenda. **03:06 — BFA: Unitel or Grupo Carrinho?** BPI's proposed share sale, Unitel's right of first refusal and the political and commercial interests around one of Angola's largest banks. **08:47 — Will Unitel step in?** Francisco and Marisa weigh the likelihood of Unitel exercising its rights and what the ownership outcome could mean for control of bank credit. **12:59 — Linking the Lobito Corridor to TAZARA.** Could a rail connection between the Atlantic and Indian Oceans give regional exporters a valuable alternative route? **17:14 — A vision without a financing plan?** Marisa examines the condition of the existing network, the missing Zambian connections and the obstacles to delivery. **21:11 — The competition for regional freight.** Routes through South Africa and Mozambique, including Nacala, and the practical choices facing mineral exporters. **24:23 — Why regional cooperation matters.** Francisco argues for a stronger SADC role in coordinating transport investment; the panel discusses the politics and financing of cross-border corridors. **32:44 — Why Angola remains on the FATF grey list.** What the continued monitoring says about the country's anti-money-laundering regime. **35:03 — The cost of grey-listing.** Correspondent banking, international transfers and the difficulties facing an import-dependent economy. **37:01 — Beneficial ownership and enforcement.** Marisa and Francisco discuss business transparency, implementation of the law and the challenge of prosecuting financial crime. **46:16 — What stricter banking checks mean for customers.** Fernando draws on Mozambique's experience of grey-listing and its everyday consequences. **47:07 — The proposed 2027 budget.** Can Angola deliver the government's growth and revenue forecasts in an election year? **48:05 — Non-oil revenue and the debt burden.** Francisco questions the revenue assumptions and warns about borrowing to service existing debt. **50:11 — How far has Angola really diversified?** Marisa examines the oil-price assumptions, the non-oil growth narrative and the narrow tax base. **55:03 — Where did the borrowed money go?** Francisco calls for an audit connecting public liabilities to the projects and assets they financed. **57:14 — Fuel subsidies and public companies.** Should state-owned enterprises pay more of their own fuel costs? **58:36 — The election-year test.** Will the government stick to its budget, or will political demands put spending plans under pressure? **1:00:27 — Closing remarks.** Read more and subscribe to the Angola Briefing: https://www.zitamar.com/angola/

5 days ago1 h 01

Angola’s Security Apparatus and the Battle for 2027

This week, host and Zitamar editor-at-large Fernando Lima is joined by Paula Cristina Roque, author, researcher and security-sector analyst, and Executive Director of Intelwatch. They begin with the government’s plans for a new North South railway corridor, including the €1.084 billion contract awarded for the section running towards Menongue, and discuss what Angola’s latest generation of large infrastructure projects may deliver for the wider economy. The conversation then turns to the political questions dominating the run-up to 2027. Paula sets out her concerns about voter registration and electoral safeguards before examining President João Lourenço’s recent changes across the armed forces, police and intelligence apparatus (from 16:36). The discussion looks at which figures retain influence inside the security establishment, whether further changes could follow, and how the security institutions could shape the political environment ahead of the election. The September reshuffle included changes across the FAA, National Police, SIC, intelligence services and Casa Militar, as well as the retirement of 26 generals and admirals who had reached the age limit. Finally, Fernando and Paula examine the unresolved MPLA succession (from 23:48). They discuss names including Bornito de Sousa and other possible successors to Lourenço, the position of Higino Carneiro, and the opposition landscape around Adalberto Costa Júnior and Abel Chivukuvuku. Paula also considers whether dialogue across Angola’s political divide could reduce the risks surrounding the transition. Get full access to Angola Briefing at www.angolabriefing.com/subscribe

2 months ago46 min

Angola’s business climate: confidence returns, constraints remain

Angola’s latest economic figures offer some of the strongest evidence in years that growth is broadening beyond oil. GDP expanded 8.74% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, while the non-oil economy grew even faster, at 9.24%. Diamond extraction, information and communications, hospitality, manufacturing and financial services all recorded double-digit growth. Inflation also fell to 9.33% in July, returning to single digits after years of much higher price increases. Those numbers suggest an economy moving in the right direction. However, the question remains of how much of that improvement is reaching companies, workers and households. Unemployment was stuck at 21.5% in the second quarter, and much of Angola’s employment remains informal. Economist Francisco Paulo told the Angola Briefing this week that the composition of growth, concentrated in the oil and diamond sectors, helps explain the disconnect. Oil and diamonds can generate large increases in output without creating employment on a similar scale because both industries are highly capital-intensive. Sign up to our newsletter at www.angolabriefing.com for more. Get full access to Angola Briefing at www.angolabriefing.com/subscribe

2 months ago53 min

Angola’s election-year spending dilemma

Welcome to the latest Angola Briefing, Zitamar's regular review of the political and economic developments shaping Angola, combining the most important news of the week with analysis from our expert panel. This week, host and journalist Fernando Lima was joined by Florindo Chivucute, founder and executive director of Friends of Angola, and Cláudio Silva, Angolan entrepreneur and political and economic commentator, to discuss the mounting economic pressures as Angola heads towards the 2027 elections, as well as the latest developments in the MPLA succession, political tensions in Uíge and the Lobito Corridor. Visit www.angolabriefing.com to read and subscribe to the newsletter bringing together the key news and the main insights from thei discussion. Get full access to Angola Briefing at www.angolabriefing.com/subscribe

3 months ago55 min

Angola’s Foreign Policy: Balancing Old Partners and New Opportunities

Welcome back to Angola Briefing from Zitamar News. In this episode, we look at Angola’s fuel shortages, the new “fake news” law and worsening food insecurity in the south, before turning to the country’s evolving foreign policy and how Luanda is balancing closer ties with the US and Europe against its longstanding relationships with China and Russia. Please help the Angola Briefing to grow by forwarding this email or otherwise sharing the Briefing with friends and colleagues with an interest in Angola. And make sure you subscribe, for free, to keep receiving all our Briefings and updates. Visit www.angolabriefing.com for the full newsletter accompanying this podcast, and to subscribe to the Angola Briefing. Get full access to Angola Briefing at www.angolabriefing.com/subscribe

3 months ago1 h 05

The Road to Angola's 2027 Elections: Who controls the party, the vote and the economy?

Welcome back to Angola Briefing from Zitamar News. Find it at www.angolabriefing.com This new product is still in a pilot phase, and for the month of August will: * Remain free to watch, listen to, and read * Run once a week, except for the week of Thursday the 20th, when it will take a break to allow for staff holidays. The pilot phase will allow us to hit the ground running in September with a regular Briefing helping investors, diplomats, IFIs and other stakeholders understand and make informed decisions on Angola. The new model will feature editions focused on particular issues, featuring sector experts. Please get in touch if there are issues you would particularly like to see covered, or questions you would like answered. You can hit reply if you’re reading this as an email, leave a comment online, or get into the Angola Briefing chat on Substack. Today’s edition is focused on the road to the 2027 elections, unquestionably the biggest issue overshadowing all others in Angola right now, and for the coming year. Please help the Angola Briefing to grow by forwarding this email or otherwise sharing the Briefing with friends and colleagues with an interest in Angola. And make sure you subscribe, for free, to keep receiving all our Briefings and updates. IN FOCUS Angola’s 2027 election has already begun The MPLA succession dispute, a legal challenge over vote-counting technology, and pressure on civil society are testing the institutions that will shape the vote’s credibility Also in today’s Angola Briefing: * Unitel outage exposes Angola’s dependence on one network (Expansão, Angola24Horas, Angola24Horas) * State companies absorb USD352 million but return only USD83 million (Expansão, Expansão) * Carneiro takes rejected MPLA leadership bid to court (Angola24Horas, Novo Jornal, MPLA) * INDRA contract dispute puts CNE procurement under scrutiny (O País, Angola24Horas, CNE) * Vigil turns attention to pressure on government critics (Lusa/RTP, DW, Angola24Horas) Get full access to Angola Briefing at www.angolabriefing.com/subscribe

3 months ago52 min

Unitel goes dark, oil output falls, and a year on from Luanda unrest

Full show notes on their way. Visit www.angolabriefing.com for the newsletter associated with the podcast. Get full access to Angola Briefing at www.angolabriefing.com/subscribe

4 months ago1 h 01

MPLA succession, rising debt, Lobito and Russian spies - the new Angola Briefing from Zitamar News

Hello, and welcome to the new Angola Briefing from Zitamar News — which follows below after a brief introduction. Zitamar has been providing news, analysis and intelligence from Mozambique since 2015, for an audience including international investors, diplomats, financial institutions, energy majors, and international NGOs. We are delighted to now be able to bring our brand of intelligent news to Angola, through the new Angola Briefing. Subscribers get: * a twice-weekly webinar, which subscribers can join live and ask questions * a twice-weekly newsletter sent to subscribers, with the biggest news from Angola and analysis from our expert commentators * the recorded webinar, which subscribers can watch at their convenience * a podcast version of the webinar It’s also worth signing up for free; non-paying subscribers will receive one of the weekly newsletters and access to the recording of the end-of-week webinar. This newsletter is free, but beyond the top news item, our expert analysis is reserved for paying subscribers. However, a 7-day free trial is available, here: https://www.angolabriefing.com/6bf20fc0 IN FOCUS MPLA: Carneiro’s exclusion makes Angola’s succession more dangerous The MPLA may be able to eliminate internal competition, but it cannot eliminate the public discontent that will shape the 2027 election The rejection of Higino Carneiro’s candidacy for the MPLA presidency makes João Lourenço’s victory at the party congress in December appear almost certain. But it does not answer who will be president of Angola after 2027. Carneiro’s submission may contain the irregularities alleged by the MPLA’s candidacy subcommittee. Of the 14,493 supporting forms it counted, the committee declared just 2,561 valid. Carneiro is entitled to ask why a final-looking decision was announced months before the candidacy deadline, however, and to demand an opportunity to inspect the thousands of forms declared invalid or false. The dispute is more significant than Carneiro’s prospects. His candidacy offered the MPLA an opportunity to demonstrate that it could manage internal competition after half a century in power. Instead, the party appears to be reverting to its established practice of treating a challenge to its leader as an act of disloyalty. Lourenço need not seek an unconstitutional third presidential mandate to preserve his influence. By remaining MPLA president, he could oversee the choice of the party’s national candidate and retain substantial authority if that candidate wins. Eliminating Carneiro therefore strengthens Lourenço’s grip on the succession while leaving Angolans uncertain about who is being prepared to lead them. That approach carries growing risks. The MPLA’s machinery remains formidable, particularly outside the major cities, where opposition parties face persistent obstacles to organising. But its electoral base is ageing while Angola’s overwhelmingly young population becomes more urban, connected and impatient. UNITA’s strong performance in Luanda in 2022 demonstrated the scale of that shift. The MPLA can control access to its congress more easily than it can control this wider political change. Social media is weakening its dominance over information, while stagnant living standards and scarce employment are giving younger Angolans little reason to defend the existing settlement. A competitive leadership contest might have helped the MPLA adapt before 2027. By closing that route, the party is pushing political competition back outside its own structures — where it will be harder to manage and potentially much more disruptive. Also in today’s Angola Briefing: * Carneiro challenges exclusion from MPLA leadership contest (Lusa, Novo Jornal, DW) * Debt rises as World Bank warns of declining per capita incomes (Lusa, Novo Jornal, Ministry of Finance) * Lobito financing advances as Barra do Dande seeks $900m (Africa Finance Corporation announcement reported by Africa.com, Expansão, Mercado) * Government considers higher electricity tariffs for large consumers (Angola24Horas, VerAngola) * Russian nationals jailed for terrorism and espionage (The Guardian, Lusa, RFI) Subscribe with a 7-day free trial at https://www.angolabriefing.com/6bf20fc0 Get full access to Angola Briefing at www.angolabriefing.com/subscribe

4 months ago53 min